Deportation Plan Would Affect U.S. Jobs and Home Prices
February 22, 2017
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Revised immigration enforcement priorities that target nearly all undocumented immigrants threaten to destabilize the economy and the economic well-being of all Americans.
New reports indicate that the job market and the residential real estate market are in line for major hits.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, President Trump’s far-reaching deportation efforts could prompt a $5 trillion cumulative loss in GDP over a decade. The effect of removing all undocumented immigrants would be like removing the economic contributions of the entire state of Georgia.
Industries such as hospitality, construction, manufacturing and agriculture could face the most harm.
“You have to think about indirect effects when you disrupt production in industries in which [undocumented immigrants are] a critical part of getting things done,” Ethan Harris, head of global economics for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told Bloomberg News. “So there’s a transition cost, as well as the cost of a reduced labor force.”
Moreover, housing markets from coast to coast that have high concentrations of foreign-born buyers could face decline.
A Trulia analysis of U.S. Census data indicates that while the rate of homeownership among native-born U.S. citizens has declined, the foreign-born rate has increased since 1995.
“If Trump gets the immigration plan he wants, the housing market will get hit harder than any other,” Alex Nowrasteh, policy analyst at the Cato Institute told Bloomberg News. “[If] millions of people get deported and more people don’t come in to take their place, then you’ll have downward pressure on home prices, especially in urban areas.”
And according to the Migration Policy Institute, one-third of all undocumented immigrants live in a home that they own or that a family member or friend owns.
“The administration’s plan to target almost all undocumented immigrants is destabilizing to American businesses and workers who depend on these immigrants,” said Ali Noorani, Executive Director of the National Immigration Forum. “We need a plan that instead reflects our values as a nation and drives our economy.”