November 16, 2012 - Posted by Maurice Belanger
In the aftermath of last week’s presidential election, the prospects for immigration reform have suddenly brightened. Many in the Republican Party have been saying, in the past week, that the Party must learn how to broaden its appeal, particularly with Latino voters. As the USA Today editorial board noted, if Mr. Romney wasn’t so unpopular with Latino voters in this election, the outcome might have been different.
- “Had Mitt Romney taken the 44% of the Hispanic vote that George W. Bush took in 2004, rather than the 27% that he actually got … [he] would have won the popular vote by about 1 million votes, rather than having lost it by about 3 million. Those votes would have shifted Florida, Colorado, Nevada and potentially other battleground states into the Republican column.”
Just two days after the election, on November 8, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said in an interview that he thinks the immigration issue has been around for “far too long.”
- “I think a comprehensive approach is long overdue, and I’m confident that the president, myself, others, can find the common ground to take care of this issue once and for all.”
Since then, many Republican Party leaders, inside and outside of Congress, have mentioned the need to deal with the immigration issue. (You can read a collection of those quotes here.) These leaders include some who previously supported reform, Senator John McCain and Representative Jeff Flake, for example, but backed away from it in the context of their own primary reelection fights.
Conservative constituency groups press for reform
Pro-reform conservative constituency groups are also speaking up for reform. On November 13, prominent leaders in the evangelical Christian community sent letters to President Obama, House Speaker John Boehner and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Majority and Minority leaders Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell urging them to meet with evangelical leaders to discuss immigration reform within the first 92 days of the new Congress. On November 12, a spokesperson for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said that he is “hopeful” that immigration reform can be accomplished “within the year,” and that immigration reform would be a priority for the Chamber.
A priority for the president
For his part, the president said in a press conference on November 14 that he expects an immigration reform bill will be introduced in the next Congress very soon after his inauguration (January 20).
Pushback in the Republican caucus
Even in the new post-election political environment, however, support for reform in Congress is obviously not unanimous. Even among those who are now saying reform is necessary, there is vagueness about the meaning of reform. A day after his remarks about a comprehensive approach to immigration drew fire from restrictionist members of his caucus in the House, Speaker Boehner appeared to back down, saying that what he meant was “a common-sense, step-by-step approach that secures our borders, allows us to enforce our laws and fix our broken immigration system.” One narrative that we are seeing develop in the news stories is that once the borders are secure, Congress can move on to regularizing the status of undocumented immigrants. Depending on the interpretation of “securing the border,” this could be an excuse for further obstruction on the issue.
Another poll shows public support for reform
There is another impetus for reform, aside from the perceived need for Republicans to attract a greater share of the Latino vote: In a poll released November 14 by ABC News and the Washington Post, 57% of the public supports a “path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.” Only 39% are opposed. The new poll reflects the exit polling conducted of voters in last week’s election, approximately two-thirds of whom supported offering undocumented immigrants legal status.
Too early for details
In advance of the convening of the next Congress convening, various legislators are talking about guest workers, visas for STEM graduates, and other pieces. In the Senate, Charles Schumer (D-N.Y., Chair of the Senate’s Immigration Subcommittee) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) are reported to be in talks to draw up an immigration proposal, dusting off a set of principles they developed two years ago, in a different context.
In sum, it is too early to speculate on what kind of legislation members of Congress will coalesce around as they try to figure out how to adjust to the new post-election political reality.
The New Congress
There will be 80 new members when the new Congress convenes in January. The National Journal has put profiles of all of them on their Web site here.
Leadership in the House and Senate remains largely the same. Republicans in the House will retain John Boehner of Ohio as Speaker. Eric Cantor of Virginia will remain as Majority Leader and Kevin McCarthy of California was reelected to the position of Majority Whip. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington was elected to the position of Chair of the Republican Conference, the number four leadership post. Rep. McMorris Rogers is the only woman in a top leadership post in the Republican caucus.
Nancy Pelosi will retain her post as Minority Leader in the House. Others returning to top leadership posts on the Democratic side are Steny Hoyer of Maryland (Minority Whip) and James Clyburn of North Carolina (Assistant to the Democratic Leader).
For Senate Democrats, Harry Reid of Nevada will remain as Majority Leader. Richard Durbin of Illinois will remain as Majority Whip. Charles Schumer of New York keeps his job as Chair of the Democratic Policy Committee. Patty Murray of Washington will continue to be Chair of the Democratic caucus.
Angus King, the independent Senator newly elected from Maine, has decided he will caucus with Democrats, meaning Democrats next year will have 55 senators in their caucus.
Republican Senators will keep Mitch McConnell of Kentucky as Minority Leader. John Cornyn of Texas will be Minority Whip, replacing John Kyl of Arizona who is retiring. John Thune of South Dakota will continue to be Republican Conference Chair. John Barrasso of Wyoming will continue to be Republican Policy Committee Chair. Jerry Moran of Kansas will replace Sen. John Cornyn as Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Congress returned this week for the start of its lame duck session. Thus far, it has been preoccupied with organizational issues for the next Congress (including reelection of leadership) and preliminary negotiations on the fiscal issues it will have to resolve one way or another before the 112th Congress adjourns.
Update: LA Council Approves City ID
In our Policy Update of October 26, we mentioned that a Committee of the Los Angeles City Council approved a plan to solicit bids for the creation of an identification card that will be issued to residents regardless of immigration status. On November 7, the full City Council approved the plan by a vote of 12 to 1. The card will be developed once a vendor is found to create it, and it may be used for opening bank accounts, borrowing library books and paying utility bills, among other uses.
Update: Part of South Carolina Law Goes into Effect
On November 15, U.S. District Judge Richard Gergel issued an order that will allow a provision of South Carolina’s immigration law (Act 69) to go into effect. Police will now be able to check the immigration status of persons stopped for other violations. This and other provisions of the law have been blocked since December 2011. The Judge Gergel lifted his injunction on the “show me your papers” provision in light of the Supreme Court’s decision in Arizona’s SB 1070. In his decision, the judge suggested that plaintiffs may return to court in the future on an “applied challenge based upon subsequent factual and legal developments.”
November 08, 2012 - Posted by Maurice Belanger
It was only a few years ago that immigration advocates struggled to get the mainstream media to pay attention to the growing share of the electorate represented by Latino, Asian American and new American voters, and how any political party that ignored—or alienated—these voters did so at their peril.
November 6, as the returns came in from the presidential election, that discussion was front and center. Every media outlet analyzing the votes as they came in remarked on the difficulty Republicans had, and will continue to have, unless they can broaden their appeal beyond a base of primarily white voters.
In the presidential race, Latinos, who in this election made up approximately 10 percent of the electorate, went for Obama by a margin of 71 to 27 percent. For Asians (making up three percent of the electorate), the margin was 73 to 26 percent. More than nine in ten (93%) African Americans voted for Obama.
Obama increased his lead among Latinos since 2008. In that year, Obama won 67 percent of the Latino vote, which then was nine percent of the electorate. (In 2004, John Kerry won 53 percent of the eight percent of the electorate that was Latino.)
For Asians, Obama’s 73 percent share was an 11 percent gain from 2008.
Meanwhile, the President lost ground with whites, winning only 39 percent of the vote, but these voters made up two percent less of the electorate than they did in 2008.
As Ron Brownstein of the National Journal noted,
- With Romney’s defeat, the GOP … faces the reality that none of its presidential nominees since 1988 has exceeded 50.8 percent of the popular vote or 286 Electoral College votes. In essence, by failing to compete more effectively for the growing minority population, Republicans have lowered their ceiling in presidential politics, and left their nominees trying to thread a needle to reach a majority either in the popular or Electoral College vote.
And that needle has an eye that is shrinking.
For Latinos, in particular, the harsh rhetoric used by Republican politicians on the immigration issue helped Obama rack up large margins with that rapidly growing part of the electorate. That rhetoric appears not to be helping Republicans among non-Latinos; exit polling from this election showed that approximately two-thirds of all voters think that undocumented immigrants should be offered a chance to apply for legal status.
In the weeks ahead, Republicans will be evaluating their mistakes. We can expect the voices of those concerned about the party’s resistance to diversity to be stronger in the internal debates of the coming weeks. Those voices include luminaries such as Grover Norquist, who recently said that “immigration is the most important thing to focus on if you’re concerned about America as an economic power.” There are a growing number of traditionally conservative evangelical leaders who are calling for action on immigration reform. Business leaders, law enforcement and conservatives have been coming together to discuss the importance of immigration and how we might forge a consensus on immigration reform.
Although there is the growing realization that Republicans must broaden their tent, what we have in this election is pretty much the status quo. Republicans control the House. Democrats control the Senate, and Obama is in the White House. Will we see anything more than the gridlock that was the hallmark of the 112th Congress? It depends.
For Republicans, if more enlightened thinkers prevail in steering the direction of the party, there may be an opening for immigration reform. Republicans would be wise to deal with the immigration issue and get it off the table in order to increase their chances for attracting Latino and new American voters. As CNN’s David Gergen noted on election night, there is reason for optimism about immigration reform in the next Congress, because “Democrats want it and Republicans now need it.”
As for Democrats, the President, during the campaign, said that one of his greatest regrets was not accomplishing immigration reform, and on election night, in the speech he gave after Governor Romney conceded, the President stated his intention to tackle immigration reform.
- [I]n the coming weeks and months, I am looking forward to reaching out and working with leaders of both parties to meet the challenges we can only solve together: reducing our deficit; reforming our tax code; fixing our immigration system; freeing ourselves from foreign oil.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on November 7 that bringing immigration reform to the floor next year is high on his list.
Little Shift in House, Senate
In the House, as of this writing, the Democrats had picked up three seats, and there were nine races still undecided. This leaves Republicans in control of the House.
In the Senate, Democrats picked up a net of one, while Republicans lost two. (Democrats Elizabeth Warren defeated incumbent Scott Brown in Massachusetts, and Joe Donnelly defeated Republican Richard Mourdock in Indiana, a Tea Party candidate who defeated the incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the primary. Republicans picked up a seat in Nebraska, where Deb Fischer defeated Democrat Bob Kerrey to replace retiring Democrat Ben Nelson. In Maine, Independent Angus King won his bid to replace retiring Republican Olympia Snowe. He has not said which party he will caucus with.)
It will take several weeks before Members of Congress sort out their committee assignments, but there will be changes in the leadership of several committees that have immigration within their jurisdiction. In the House, Lamar Smith, currently Chair of the Judiciary Committee, is at the end of a Republican party-imposed term limit for his chairmanship of that Committee. He may be replaced by Rep. Robert Goodlatte (R-Virginia). Elton Gallegly, who was Chair of the Immigration Subcommittee this year, is retiring, leaving Steve King of Iowa, who narrowly won re-election, as a possible replacement. (However, his penchant for inflammatory rhetoric about immigration would pose problems for Republicans in light of the problems discussed above.) Peter King of New York reaches his term limit as Chair of the House Homeland Security Committee.
In the Senate, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut is retiring, and the Chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee will be filled by Thomas Carper of Delaware. On the Republican side, Susan Collins of Maine will be term-limited as the ranking member, and it is expected she will be replaced by Tom Coburn of Oklahoma.
In the meantime, Congress will be returning to Washington on November 13 to complete work on tax and spending legislation that will avoid automatic cuts to agency budgets and automatic tax increases popularly known as the “fiscal cliff.”
There may be little time to focus on immigration during the lame duck, but we may see another attempt at a bill to increase visas for persons with degrees in the fields of science, technology, engineering and math. In addition, reauthorizing legislation for the Violence Against Women Act has not yet been resolved, with House and Senate versions differing in their treatment of immigrant victims of domestic violence.
If there is no deal in Congress to increase revenue and cut spending, the New Year will bring automatic cuts to agency budgets across the board, and the budgets of the immigration agencies, including U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, will suffer large cuts.